Key Takeaways
East Coast and Gulf Coast Container Terminals current agreement will expire January 15, 2025.
Chinese New Year 2025 (CNY / TET)
The holiday falls on Wednesday, January 29th 2025. The holiday causes disruption and delays at factories across Asia.
Most factories will close for 2 weeks or more.
Logistics providers will continue to operate, though expect some disruptions.
Leading up to and following the holiday there will be shortages in capacity and rate fluctuations.
Ocean vessel schedule reliability is hovering around 55% going into 2025. This represents a drop from 2023, where reliability was near 65%. It is also a large drop from 2019 and prior, which saw reliability averaging 75%+
For US imports expect minimal delays on average 1-3 days.
Booking delays in Asia could be as high as 2 weeks.
Container Logistics
Container Costs
Starting in May 2024 and continuing into January 2025 container rates increased
40’ containers coming to the USA topped out around $12,000
In recent weeks rates have pulled back, however they are still nearly two times the rates we saw throughout most of 2023
Factors that caused the increase:
Carriers canceling planned vessels, to ensure each boat that is moving is full. Leading to shippers fighting for the available space.
Container availability issues are occurring. This is mostly due to the longer transit times boats have been facing for 8+ months.
Additionally, vessels being out of position due to longer transit times / delays.
Shippers are moving up their peak season shipments, which is worsening the current market conditions.
Imports to the US are up 17% year over year.
Suez Canal and the Red Sea
Starting in November 2023 most long-range steamship lines are avoiding this area. Local traffic is continuing to use the canal.
Overall volume through the canal is down over 50% compared to this time last year.
Vessels inbound to the USA are continuing to route around Africa (Cape of Good Hope), which increases transit time by roughly a week.
US Port and Overland Overview
Fuel Updates
Ocean Fuel (VLSFO) as of January 2025 we now see a trend in costs coming down (on a global average) of roughly 8%.
Compared to 2021 and prior the cost is still up 50% +
Diesel in the USA as the start of January is $3.50 a gallon
Diesel is still roughly 20% higher than 2019 levels, which is keeping freight prices elevated.
Additionally, average diesel prices reported by EIA.gov are typically lower than truck stop prices, and are average across large sections of the country.
National FTL rates are steady going into 2025, though elevated from 2019 levels.
FTL rates out of Southern California are high and are expected to remain high.
LTL and small package rates have continued to rise, due to the nature of how those networks function.
Data Analysis
November container imports broke a 4-month streak of container imports surpassing 2.4m TEUs. November’s final count came in at 2,368,758 TEUs.
Overall imports are up 17% year over year
West coast port share continues to outpace the east coast.
The PDF below is port-by-port review across the U.S. in January 2025 compared to 2024 & 2023.